ON THE TRANSFER OF SOME OR (OPERATIONS RESEARCH) MS (MANAGEMENT SCIENCE) TECHNOLOGY TO CRIMINAL JUSTICE

• NCJ Number: 56865
• Journal: INTERFACES Volume: 9 Issue: 1 Dated: (NOVEMBER 1978) Pages: 78-86
• Author(s): C M HARRIS; S D MOITRA
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 9 pages
• Corporate Author: Institute of Management Sciences
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

STATISTICAL TESTS USED COMMONLY IN RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND MORTALITY/MORBIDITY MODELING ARE APPLIED TO AN EVALUATION OF RECIDIVISM IN WASHINGTON, D.C. AND ELSEWHERE.

Abstract

AS CRIME BECAME A MAJOR SOCIAL ISSUE IN THE 1960'S AND 1970'S AND COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY BECAME INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED, THE NEED FOR MORE COMPREHENSIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS GREW. THE BASIC STATISTICAL INNOVATION RECOMMENDED FOR THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SETTING IS ADAPTING THE CONCEPT OF MEASURING RATES OF FAILURE RELATIVE TO TIME. (FAILURE EVENTS CAN BE DEFINED AS ARRESTS, CONVICTIONS, ESCAPES, INCARCERATIONS, ETC.) A RECIDIVIST IS DEFINED AS ONE WHO SUCCUMBS TO ONE OF THESE HAZARDS. THE KEY POINT OF THIS TYPE OF ANALYSIS IS THAT IT PROVIDES A BETTER STATISTICAL TOOL FOR MEASURING THE PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT REHABILITATION TECHNIQUES OR PROGRAMS. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO INTRODUCE CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES THAT MAKE MORE EFFICIENT USE OF AVAILABLE DATA AND STANDARDIZE MEASUREMENT SO THAT MORE VALID AND TIMELY COMPARISONS ARE FEASIBLE. THE FAILURE-RATE METHODOLOGY WAS APPLIED TO SOME OF THE REHABILITATIVE PROGRAMS RUN BY THE DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA IN AN EFFORT TO EVALUATE THEIR EFFECTIVENESS. EMPIRICAL FAILURE RATES ARE COMPUTED AND THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THEIR FAILURE TIMES ESTABLISHED. SECOND, THE COMPARISON OF FAILURE RATES OF ALTERNATIVE PROGRAMS IN ORDER TO EVALUATE PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS IS DONE USING THE F TEST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD GIVE GREATER INSIGHT INTO HOW THE SUBJECT SYSTEMS OPERATE AND MAY HELP TO ISOLATE THOSE FACTORS WHICH LEAD TO SUPERIOR RESULTS. CLEARLY THIS IS CRUCIAL IN ASSESSING CORRECTIONAL/REHABILITATIVE EFFORTS, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO RATES OF RECIDIVISM AND COST/BENEFIT TRADE-OFFS. IT WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE TO DESIGN BETTER DATA COLLECTION AND DATA ANALYSIS PROCEDURES FOR MONITORING CRIME, CRIME-CONTROL, AND REHABILITATION EFFECTIVENESS, THUS RESULTING IN; MORE EFFICIENT REPORTING SYSTEMS. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCE NOTES ARE INCLUDED. (STB)