NCJ Number
151695
Date Published
1994
Length
197 pages
Annotation
As large cities begin to build improved and expanded public transportation systems, there will be the concomitant expectation that these systems can be used by the public safely and comfortably. This futures study examines issues related to transit policing in California, and predicts how this area will develop by the year 2004.
Abstract
The participants in this study chose 10 events which were most likely to occur within the next 10 years. These included (1) enactment of a Federal gas tax, (2) terrorist attacks against transit targets, (3) college student service, (4) dissolution of the city police department, (5) infractions becoming a civil (rather than criminal) matter, (6) issuance of criminal citations to civilians, (7) reduction in State tax distributions, (8) rise in gasoline prices to exceed $3 per gallon, (9) demand that transit provide free rides, and (10) massive transit agency layoffs. A cross-analysis of these events and several likely trends produced three potential scenarios pertaining to transit policing. The normative scenario incorporated only those events where the positive impact was forecast to be higher than the negative impact. The strategic and transition management plans presented here were developed to help police planners execute the normative scenario in a manner that is effective in terms of both cost and crime deterrence. 1 table, 22 figures, 38 notes, 28 references, and 3 appendixes