Trend and Deviation in Crime Rates: A Comparison of UCR and NCS Data

• NCJ Number: 126037
• Author(s): A Blumstein; J Cohen; R Rosenfeld
• Date Published: 1989
• Length: 39 pages
• Grant Number(s): 86-IJ-CX-0083
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Trends and year-to-year deviations in Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) and National Crime Survey (NCS) data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985.

Abstract

There is a strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The primary difference between the two data series lies in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that these have been converging in recent years. "Ex post" forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973-85 data continued through 1986 and 1987. While the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. The report concludes that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time. 11 notes, 26 references, 4 tables, and 3 figures. (Author abstract modified)