NCJ Number
106019
Date Published
1987
Length
19 pages
Annotation
This chapter examines trends in child abuse and delinquency since 1965 and projects future trends.
Abstract
Between 1965-1971, juvenile arrests rates increased rapidly. Between 1971-1983, the high levels have remained relatively constant, and this recent plateau in per capita arrest rates will probably continue. Demographic trends indicate that the current decline in the at-risk population (13-17-year olds) will reverse about 1990, and that the population will be about the same in 1995 as in 1985. It is likely that the volume of youth crime will follow a similar pattern. The per capita rate for court referrals for serious child abuse and neglect remained constant for about 30 years, then jumped markedly after 1980. There is some evidence to suggest that this increase reflects increased public concern rather than an increase in prevalance. An examination of trends in family characteristics suggests that the continuing deterioration of family life is not necessarily predictive of increasing youth pathology. In fact, some social indicators show improvement since 1980. Overall, a 10-percent decline in juvenile arrest rates is envisioned in 1985-1990, a 2-percent decline is projected for 1985-1995, and a 6-percent increase is foreseen for 1985-2000. 2 endnotes, 13 tables, and 15 references.