Uncovering the True Picture: Evaluating Crime Reduction Initiatives Using Disaggregate Crime Data

• NCJ Number: 197234
• Journal: Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal Volume: 3 Issue: 4 Dated: 2001 Pages: 7-24
• Author(s): Shane D. Johnson; Kate J. Bowers; Chris Young; Alex F. G. Hirschfield
• Editor(s): Rob Mawby
• Date Published: 2001
• Length: 18 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

This article describes the evaluation techniques that can now be used with the availability of individual-level data to look at rate changes in burglary and repeat burglary as it relates to crime prevention activity in any given target area as compared to any other geographic area.

Abstract

The use of disaggregate crime data can reveal patterns that would otherwise be ignored or distorted, is the subject of this paper. A brief review of the current social climate in the United Kingdom covering the development of evidence-led policy making in the political realm is provided. The drawbacks to using aggregate-level data are discussed. Consideration is given to the possibility of the geographical displacement of crime to other areas. Techniques developed are illustrated and discussed with a case study using disaggregate-level data compared to analyses done at the level of the police beat. Newly developed techniques, software, and the use of a GIS are described. Figures giving contextual information include a photograph of a geographical boundary of the scheme, a socio-demographic profile of the scheme and comparison areas, burglary rates before and after the scheme began, proportion of burglaries that were incidents of repeat victimization, target area and a series of concentric ring buffer zones, and weighted displacement quotients for the five buffer zone rings. Tables are included that show burglaries before and after the scheme's inception date of April 1, 1999; and a revised table examining burglaries that happened after the inception date in relation to their individual target-hardening date. This article concludes by demonstrating how accurate information on the recipients of crime prevention measures, and on burglaries in the area, can lead to detailed insights on the effectiveness of the measures taken. A list of definitions of "lifestyle pen-pictures" is provided, as are source notes in an appendix.