Understanding the Time Path of Crime

• NCJ Number: 190245
• Journal: Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume: 88 Issue: 4 Dated: Summer 1998 Pages: 1423-1451
• Author(s): John J. Donohue
• Date Published: 1998
• Length: 29 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This paper attempted to sort out the long-term trends in crime over the last 50 years from the short-term fluctuations around those trends.

Abstract

Knowing there will always be random events that escalate the rate of crime, such as extreme catastrophes (Oklahoma City 1995) and innovations in illegal drug markets and random events that depress it, such as bad weather, charismatic religious leaders, or widespread reductions in enthusiasm for illegal drugs, the primary goal was in understanding the long-run trends in crime and what will likely happen in the future. In order to accomplish this goal, the focus needed to be off the short-term fluctuations in order to identify the stable long-run patterns. It was shown that there were two clear long-run trends in crime over the last half century. The first one involved sharply rising crime until the late 1970's and the second one followed with a period of slow decline over the next 2 decades, with many short-term fluctuations around the two long-run trends. The paper began by documenting these broad patterns and how they illuminated the issues of why crime has fallen and where it is headed in the future. Part II showed the increased levels of incarceration and favorable demographic shifts that contributed to the slow decline in crime over the last 2 decades, but could not explain the sudden drop in the mid-1990's (short-term fluctuation). The final section concluded that the growing cost of incarceration suggested that, at some point, the public would call for an end to further increases in the number of prison inmates. In summation, while the massive increases in incarceration undoubtedly contributed to the reversal in the late 1970's of 2 decades of sharply rising crime, they had only a small effect on homicide relative to the magnitude of the short-term fluctuations experienced over the last 2 decades. Graphs