NCJ Number
186957
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 16 Issue: 4 Dated: December 2000 Pages: 443-455
Date Published
December 2000
Length
13 pages
Annotation
This study considers how best to measure unemployment within the context of the unemployment-property crime relationship.
Abstract
The study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) techniques to examine the relative efficacy of using the conventional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment rate and two alternative measures of the demand for labor as predictors of monthly counts of U.S. property offenses for the years 1982 through 1996. Bivariate time series analyses indicate that, while the BLS unemployment rate exhibits null effects, the number of individuals unemployed for 15 weeks or longer and the capacity utilization rate significantly affect the level of property crime. Drawing on rational choice theory, the study contends that long-term or permanent unemployment, rather than temporary joblessness, is implicated in the production of higher levels of property crime. Further, it claims that the conventional BLS unemployment rate, within the context of rational choice theory, is a flawed measure of the criminogenic effects of joblessness. The study expresses concern about the use of social indicators in macrocriminological research, claiming that the inability to devise direct measures of pivotal theoretical concepts seriously hampers efforts to critically evaluate macro-level explanations of crime. Tables, notes, references