NCJ Number
131931
Journal
Social Science Quarterly Volume: 71 Issue: 3 Dated: (September 1990) Pages: 567-584
Date Published
1990
Length
18 pages
Annotation
Monthly aggregate time-series data from New York City are used to examine short-term trends in murder, rape, felonious assault, and robbery. The focus of the investigation is on whether the size of the police force, the arrest rate, and economic conditions have any impact on the crime rate in these four areas.
Abstract
The findings clearly indicate that murder, rape, and assault appear to be outside the control of municipal authorities; adding police officers to the force and increasing the arrest rate does not affect these violent crime rates. The data also suggest that murder and rape are essentially random events that deviate around a stable level. However, increased arrests are a strong deterrent to robbery, which is an economically rather than emotionally motivated crime. This study found that cyclical variation in the unemployment rate as well as changes in the proportion of the population on home relief did not impact on violent crime in New York City, at least not in the short term. 2 tables, 4 figures, and 21 references (Author abstract modified)