USE OF DECISION THEORY IN THE EVALUATION OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROGRAMS

• NCJ Number: 25072
• Author(s): J R NEWMAN; J OBERSTONE
• Date Published: 1972
• Length: 99 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Los Angeles Regional Criminal Justice Planning Board
• Corporate Author: University of Southern California
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Program/Project Evaluation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE MODERN THEORY OF DECISION MAKING EMPHASIZING THOSE ASPECTS THAT ARE GERMANE TO THE EVALUATION OF ONGOING OR PROPOSED ACTION PROGRAMS IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE AREA.

Abstract

THE APPROACH TO DECISION MAKING PROBLEMS THAT IS TAKEN BY THE AUTHORS INVOLVES 4 STEPS: FIRST, ALL THE GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ARE IDENTIFIED WITH SPECIFIED MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS WHEN POSSIBLE; THE PROJECT'S POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES ARE DESCRIBED; THEN THE RELATIVE PREFERENCES ON THE DECISION MAKER FOR EACH POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCE ARE ESTABLISHED; AND, FINALLY, A REASONABLE, RATIONAL RULE IS ESTABLISHED FOR COMBINING THE INFORMATION SPECIFIED IN THE FIRST THREE STEPS. THE RULE IS USED AS AN AID IN REACHING THE FINAL DECISION ABOUT THE PROGRAM. THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF DECISION MAKING ARE PRESENTED AS WELL AS A CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM FOR VARIOUS TYPES OF DECISIONS. A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO DECISION MAKING IS GIVEN WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY A COMPLETELY WORKED OUT EXAMPLE OF THE APPROACH. THE FINAL SECTION PRESENTS METHODS OF EXTRACTING EXPERT OPINION FROM GROUPS OR INDIVIDUALS. THE APPENDIX CONTAINS A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS.