NCJ Number
50412
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 6 Issue: 2 Dated: (SUMMER 1978) Pages: 99-116
Date Published
1978
Length
18 pages
Annotation
DATA FROM THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ARE USED TO VALIDATE A SIMULATION MODEL OF A MUNICIPAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, AND THE MODEL IS USED TO TEST THE EFFECTS OF VARIOUS INTERVENTION STRATEGIES ON SYSTEM PERFORMANCE.
Abstract
THE MODEL, WHICH IS BASED ON THE CONCEPT OF INDUSTRIAL (OR SYSTEMS) DYNAMICS, EMBODIES A QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF ORGANIZATIONAL FORM, POLICY, AND UNDERLYING STRUCTURE. THE MODEL'S 16 STATES ENCOMPASS THE NUMBER OF CRIMES UNDER INVESTIGATION, COURT BACKLOGS, AND CORRECTIONS POPULATIONS. TO VALIDATE THE MODEL, COMPUTED OUTPUT FOR EACH SYSTEM STATE AND PERFORMANCE MEASURE WAS COMPARED WITH ACTUAL DATA GATHERED FROM THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE AGENCIES FOR 1972 THROUGH 1975. THE VALIDATED MODEL IS USED TO PREDICT THE EFFECTS OF ELIMINATING FELONY PLEA BARGAINING AND RESTRICTING BAIL. THE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA IS WELL INSULATED FROM SMALL DISTURBANCES BUT IS PRONE TO DISRUPTION FROM LARGE CHANGES IN NORMAL OPERATIONS. THE RELATIVE INSENSITIVITY OF THE SYSTEM TO SMALL DISTURBANCES SUGGESTS THAT ITS FUTURE WILL MIRROR ITS PAST. IF CURRENT PRACTICES AND POLICIES CONTINUE, CRIME IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CAN BE EXPECTED TO RISE AT A STEADY 3.6 PERCENT PER YEAR, WITH OTHER MEASURES OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE DECLINING GRADUALLY. THE MODEL INDICATES THAT ELIMINATION OF PLEA BARGAINING HOLDS LITTLE PROMISE FOR REDUCING CRIME OR IMPROVING COURT EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER, IMPLEMENTATION OF A RESTRICTED BAIL POLICY OFFERS SOME ENCOURAGING RESULTS (E.G., DECREASED CRIME RATES, INCREASED PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION). PLANS TO USE THE MODEL IN A MORE COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS ARE NOTED, AS IS THE MODEL'S POTENTIAL AS A PLANNING TOOL. A CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM FLOW DIAGRAM BASED ON THE MODEL, GRAPHS, AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)