NCJ Number
55276
Date Published
1978
Length
27 pages
Annotation
VICTIMIZATION SURVEY AND UNIFORM CRIME REPORT DATA ARE ANALYZED IN A STUDY OF CORRELATIONS BETWEEN CERTAINTY OF ARREST AND CRIME RATES IN FIVE CITIES.
Abstract
GENERAL VALIDITY PROBLEMS FOUND IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORT DATA ARE REVIEWED, AND METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS THAT ARISE WHEN THESE DATA ARE APPLIED IN RESEARCH RELATING CRIME RATES TO CERTAINTY OF ARREST ARE CONSIDERED. NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY AND UNIFORM CRIME REPORT DATA FOR FOUR OFFENSES (RAPE, ROBBERY, ASSAULT, LARCENY) IN FIVE CITIES (CHICAGO, DETROIT, LOS ANGELES, NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA) IN 1972 ARE USED TO CONSTRUCT CERTAINTY OF ARREST INDEXES AND CRIME/VICTIMIZATION INDEXES. IN GENERAL, INCLUSION OF VICTIMIZATION SURVEY DATA ENHANCES CORRELATIONS BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND CERTAINTY OF ARREST, THUS LENDING SUPPORT TO THE DETERRENCE ARGUMENT. EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, INCLUDING OFFENSE AND OFFENDER CHARACTERISTICS, THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CERTAINTY OF ARREST DETERS A GIVEN OFFENSE ARE CONSIDERED. IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS FOR POLICYMAKERS AND DETERRENCE RESEARCHERS ARE POINTED OUT. RESEARCHERS ARE ADVISED TO EXPLORE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG CERTAINTY, SEVERITY, AND SWIFTNESS OF PUNISHMENT, AND TO KEEP IN MIND THE RECIPROCAL NATURE OF THE MANY VARIABLES INVOLVED IN THE DETERRENCE CONCEPT AS THEY SEEK TO DEMONSTRATE CAUSAL DIRECTION EMPIRICALLY. SUPPORTING DATA, A TABLE SUMMARIZING MAJOR DETERRENCE RESEARCH, AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (LKM)