NCJ Number
58856
Date Published
1978
Length
25 pages
Annotation
ACTUARIAL PREDICTION OF PROBATION SUCCESS THROUGH IDENTIFICATION OF VARIABLES FOUND IN THE DIVISION OF CORRECTIONS INFORMATION SYSTEM IS PRESENTED IN THIS RESEARCH STUDY.
Abstract
THE THREE RESEARCH QUESTIONS INVOLVED IN THIS STUDY ARE WHAT VARIABLES WERE FOUND IN THE INFORMATION SYSTEM THAT EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANCE GREATER THAT CHANCE THAT STATISTICALLY DIFFERENTIATED SUCCESSFUL FROM UNSUCCESSFUL PROBATIONERS? CAN THREE SEPARATE SCALES, ONE FOR THE DISTRICT COURT, ONE FOR THE LOWER COURT, AND ONE FOR THOSE CONVICTED OF DRINKING WHILE DRIVING, BE CONSTRUCTED FROM THESE VARIABLES? CAN THE NEWLY CONSTRUCTED SCALES PREDICT SUCCESSFUL FROM UNSUCCESSFUL PROBATIONARY TERMS? METHODOLOGY INVOLVED IDENTIFYING PRIMARY VARIABLES THROUGH ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION SYSTEM STATISTICS ON THOSE WHO SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED PROBATION AND THOSE WHOSE PROBATIONS WERE REVOKED. THE CHI SQUARE TEST WAS APPLIED, AND VARIABLES WERE IDENTIFIED. FIFTEEN VARIABLES WERE CONSIDERED TO BE THE IDEAL NUMBER NECESSARY TO CONSTRUCT THE SCALES REQUIRED BY QUESTION TWO. THE NEWLY CONSTRUCTED SCALES WERE THEN APPLIED WITH USE OF A T-TEST. THE STUDY COVERED ONLY THE PERIOD JANUARY 1, 1977, TO JANUARY 1, 1978, AND RESULTED IN SIMPLE SCALES THAT COULD BE USED BY THE DIVISION OF CORRECTION AGENTS DIRECTLY IN THE FIELD. VARIABLES THAT WERE FOUND TO DIFFERENTIATE IN A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT MANNER INCLUDED EDUCATION, OCCUPATION, MENTAL HOSPITAL INVOLVEMENT, AND CLASSIFICATION AS A RUNAWAY OR AS A JUVENILE. THREE SEPARATE SCALES WERE CONSTRUCTED USING THE PRIMARY VARIABLE INFORMATION, AS PRESENTED IN THE TABLES. EACH OF THE THREE SCALES PREDICTED SUCCESSFUL FROM UNSUCCESSFUL PROBATIONARY TERMS WITH A PREDICTIVE VALIDITY GREATER THAN CHANCE. IT WAS CONCLUDED THAT THE SCALES DO HAVE ACCURATE PREDICTIVE QUALITIES, BUT COULD BE REFINED THROUGH ADDITIONAL WORK, USING THIS PILOT PROJECT AS A BASIS. STATISTICAL TABULAR DATA, REFERENCES, AND APPENDIX ARE PROVIDED. (LWM)