NCJ Number
218726
Journal
Criminal Behavior and Mental Health Volume: 17 Issue: 2 Dated: 2007 Pages: 89-100
Date Published
2007
Length
12 pages
Annotation
This study evaluated the validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) in predicting criminal recidivism in a sample of mentally ill German individuals.
Abstract
The study found that the VRAG, which was developed in Canada to estimate the probability of recidivism among mentally ill offenders, exhibited good predictive accuracy for the German sample. The VRAG predicted probability of recidivism was significantly correlated with the observed rates of actual recidivism for the sample. The validity of the VRAG with the German sample was consistent with the high predictive accuracy of the VRAG previously described in other international studies. One interesting finding to emerge from the research was that with the VRAG, schizophrenia was considered a protective factor against future recidivism, which is considered a highly controversial finding. Future research should examine the finding that schizophrenia was a protective factor against future offending. Participants were 113 individuals accused of crimes who were under evaluation for criminal responsibility at the Department of Forensic Psychiatry at the University of Munich between 1994 and 1995. The research involved assessing the risk profiles of each individual at the time of evaluation in 1994-1995 using the file data, which included one German risk assessment instrument and three internationally recognized risk assessment instruments, including the VRAG. Data analysis involved calculating the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics and using the Kaplan-Meier analysis to assess the distribution of time periods between the beginning and the end of the time-at-risk period (in this case it was 58.06 months). Tables, figures, references