Variation in the Incarceration Length-Recidivism Dose-Response Relationship

• NCJ Number: 250867
• Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 46 Dated: September 2016 Pages: 118-128
• Author(s): J. Rydberg; K. Clark
• Date Published: September 2016
• Length: 11 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
• Publication Format: Article; Document (Online)
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical); Report (Study/Research); Report (Grant Sponsored)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examined whether the dose-response relationship between incarceration length and recidivism varied across different conviction- offense categories and measures of parole failure.

Abstract

The study approximated a large fixed panel of parolees from the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) to implement a dose-response analysis of the relationship between incarceration length and the prevalence and timing of recidivism. Marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMW-S) was used to limit confounding effects from selection bias. The study found that incremental doses of incarceration length increased the likelihood and hastened the timing of parole revocations, and reduced the likelihood and slowed the timing of new sentences. Considerable heterogeneity was observed in these effects across conviction offenses, as the direction of effects changed beyond certain thresholds, and was not constant across offender groups. The study concludes that the results did not provide consistent support for a suppressive, criminogenic, or null effect for incarceration length on recidivism. (Publisher abstract modified)