NCJ Number
197463
Journal
Child Maltreatment Volume: 7 Issue: 4 Dated: November 2002 Pages: 291-302
Editor(s)
Mark Chaffin
Date Published
November 2002
Length
12 pages
Annotation
This article discusses several difficulties encountered in understanding and predicting sustained sexual offending by juveniles, emphasizing the kinds of prediction required by sexually violent persons (SVP) statutes and implied in mandatory registration laws.
Abstract
Many States have passed laws to manage the assumed risk juvenile sex offenders pose. These laws assume that juvenile sexual offenders as a group will present a sustained risk for sexual offending for many years. In addition, it is understood in this assumption that criminal sexual behavior is a product of some form of stable trait or condition that continues to push the juvenile toward sexually violent behaviors as they get older. This article examines these assumptions based on research on the stability of sexually offending behavior in juveniles. It was concluded that a typology approach of juvenile sexual offenders might hold promise in leading to the kind of precision in risk prediction that SVP laws require. The ideal risk assessment method would involve a typology of well-established offense career trajectories. The method would include a way to assess significant “turning points” that may alter the career trajectory of a youth. Another typology method identified as effective is a version of the Iterative Classification Tree approach that begins by identifying risk factors that are sensitive to age or developmental changes. References