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Who Returns to Prison?: A Survival Analysis of Recidivism Among Adult Offenders Released in Oklahoma, 1985-2004

NCJ Number
217366
Journal
Justice Research and Policy Volume: 8 Issue: 2 Dated: 2006 Pages: 57-88
Author(s)
Andrew L. Spivak; Kelly R. Damphousse
Date Published
2006
Length
32 pages
Annotation
This study tracked 60,536 adult offenders released from Oklahoma prisons between 1985 and 1999, in order to identify the factors linked to any return to prison (recidivism) before May 31, 2004.
Abstract
The study found that property offenders were at greater risk of recidivism than drug, violent, or sex offenders. Other factors linked to recidivism were being released to probation rather than being discharged; having a history of violent offenses; having a greater number of past incarcerations; and being young, male, and of a minority race. Sentence length and the length of time in prison had weak but significant associations with recidivism. Security classification and proportion of sentence served had moderately positive significant relationships with recidivism. The authors interpret these findings to indicate that positive institutional performance and shorter prison stays will result in lower recidivism rates. Thus, "good behavior" indicators, such as number of misconduct reports and program completions, should be primary considerations in parole and clemency decisions. The predictor variables measured and analyzed with a Cox Proportional Hazards Survival Regression included offense type, release type (probation, parole, or discharge), number of prior incarcerations, sentence length, time served in prison, security classification, education, age, sex, and race. 5 tables, 9 figures, and 34 references