NCJ Number
51450
Date Published
1978
Length
25 pages
Annotation
TRENDS IN THE COMMITMENT OF OFFENDERS AGE 14 TO 21 FROM 1972 THROUGH 1976 AND IN THE COMMITMENT OF OFFENDERS AGE 20 AND YOUNGER FROM 1932 THROUGH 1977 ARE ANALYZED.
Abstract
THE SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS COMPARES TRENDS IN THE TOTAL INMATE POPULATION AND THE OVER-21 POPULATION WITH TRENDS IN THE 14-21 POPULATION. THERE ARE THREE MAJOR FINDINGS: A DEFINITE, PROGRESSIVELY UPWARD TREND IN NUMBER OF COMMITMENTS FOR ALL AGE GROUPS; A MORE PRONOUNCED UPWARD TREND FOR THE 14-21 POPULATION THAN FOR OTHER AGE GROUPS; AND ABNORMALLY INFLATED AND DEFLATED TRENDS IN COMMITMENT FOR THE 14-21 AND OVER-21 GROUPS, RESPECTIVELY, IN 1973. THE LONG-TERM ANALYSIS, WHICH ENCOMPASSES ALL OFFENDERS 20 OR YOUNGER COMMITTED TO MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTION FACILITIES FROM 1932 THROUGH 1977, SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE COMMITMENT OF OFFENDERS FROM THIS AGE GROUP. THE LONG-TERM ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, ALTHOUGH THE PROPORTION OF YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS IS LOWER IN RECENT YEARS THAN IN THE PAST, THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPWARD TREND IN THE NUMBER OF COMMITMENTS FOR YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS IN RECENT YEARS. MORE RESEARCH IS NEEDED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THAT UPWARD TREND REPRESENTS AN INCREASE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE, OR MERELY THE CREST OF A CYCLE. SUPPORTING DATA AND DETAILS OF THE ANALYSIS ARE PROVIDED. (LKM)